Autumn Budget 2026: Date, Time and What Healey Could Announce on 28 October
The Autumn Budget 2026 will be delivered on Wednesday 28 October 2026 by John Healey, the Chancellor appointed by Andy Burnham in July. It is his first fiscal event, and he has less room to manoeuvre than his predecessor. Borrowing is running £8.1 billion above forecast, and Healey has promised not to raise income tax, National Insurance for employees or VAT. Our reading of the official numbers is that this pledge rules out three of the four biggest levers any Chancellor has, which narrows the realistic options to a short list.
In short
- When: Wednesday 28 October 2026, usually around 12:30pm, straight after Prime Minister’s Questions. The OBR publishes its forecast the same day.
- The squeeze: borrowing is £8.1bn over forecast in the first five months of the financial year, according to the Resolution Foundation.
- Our finding: HMRC’s own figures show the pledge locks away about £22.7bn per one-point rise across income tax, employee National Insurance and VAT. They also show a higher capital gains rate would lose money, not raise it.
When is the Budget 2026?
HM Treasury confirmed the date on 31 July 2026, when Healey announced that it would “move money and power out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain”. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its Economic and Fiscal Outlook on the same day, according to the OBR.
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| 21 October | September inflation figure, which helps set the April 2027 state pension rise |
| 28 October, about 12:30pm | Healey’s statement in the Commons, after PMQs |
| 28 October | OBR forecast and the first test of the fiscal rules since November 2025 |
| 3 December | Scottish budget for 2027-28 |
The exact start time is not confirmed in advance. By convention the statement follows Prime Minister’s Questions, which begin at noon.
Who is delivering it?
John Healey, previously Defence Secretary, became Chancellor on 20 July 2026, the day Andy Burnham took office as Prime Minister. His predecessor, Rachel Reeves, delivered the last two autumn statements and has left government.
How much room does Healey have?
The last official measure of headroom was £21.7 billion against the main fiscal rule in 2029-30, set in November 2025. The OBR’s March 2026 forecast did not re-test the rules, so 28 October is the first update in eleven months.
Since then the numbers have moved the wrong way. The Resolution Foundation calculates that borrowing to August was £8.1bn above forecast, and that the conflict in the Middle East could add £10-15 billion to borrowing in 2029-30. Private estimates of what is left range widely: Deutsche Bank, quoted by the Telegraph, put it at about £8.5bn. The IFS publishes its Green Budget on 14 October.
What would each lever raise?
HMRC’s “ready reckoner” shows what a one-point change in each rate would bring in. Three of the four biggest sit behind Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge, which Healey reaffirmed in September 2026, City AM reported. A point on VAT, the basic rate and employee National Insurance together would raise about £21bn in 2026-27. Employer National Insurance, the largest single lever at £11.15bn a point, is not named in the pledge, but it was already raised in the October 2024 Budget.
How much would 2p on income tax raise? Doubling HMRC’s figure gives about £13.8bn in 2026-27 for 2p on the basic rate. That is our arithmetic, not an HMRC number, and the pledge rules it out.
The capital gains surprise. The same HMRC table shows that raising the higher rate of capital gains by 10 points would cut receipts. The loss is £540m in 2026-27 and £3.6bn by 2028-29, because people would sell fewer assets. So reports that aligning capital gains with income tax could raise about £14bn deserve caution. HMRC’s figures date from June 2025 and model a smaller change, but they point the other way.
What is being reported for 28 October?
None of these is confirmed. The Treasury does not comment on what it calls rumour and speculation.
| Option | Reported by | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Windfall levies on banks and oil and gas | Telegraph via LBC, 31 Aug 2026 | Not confirmed |
| Lowering the new council tax surcharge on homes from £2m to £1.5m | City AM, 20 Sep 2026 | Not confirmed |
| A smaller headroom buffer to limit rises | Telegraph, 24 Sep 2026 | Treasury: no comment on rumour |
| Aligning capital gains with income rates | Independent; CIOT, Sep 2026 | Speculation; see HMRC figures above |
| Unfreezing the personal allowance | Independent, Sep 2026 | Government pushed back |
| Raising the bank surcharge | CIOT, 4 Sep 2026 | Reportedly considered |
| Replacing council tax and stamp duty with a property levy | CIOT, 4 Sep 2026 | Reportedly rejected by the PM for now |
Already announced before the statement: a temporary VAT cut on household electricity, business rates relief for pubs and a share of income tax receipts for regional mayors.
What will it mean for pensioners?
The state pension will rise in April 2027 under the triple lock, by the highest of September inflation, earnings growth or 2.5%. Earnings grew by 3.9% in May to July 2026, the ONS reported, and August inflation was 3.1%. Unless September inflation beats 3.9%, the full new state pension would go from £241.30 to about £250.71 a week, or £13,037 a year.
That creates a problem the last Budget left behind. The personal allowance is frozen at £12,570 until 2031. A pensioner with only the full new state pension would be £467 over it, facing a bill of about £93 a year. The Prime Minister’s spokesman has said pensioners just over the allowance will not face small bills, with details due on the day.
What changed at the last Budget?
Reeves’ statement on 26 November 2025 froze income tax and National Insurance thresholds until April 2031. It capped the National Insurance break on salary-sacrifice pension contributions at £2,000 from 2029. It also added a surcharge on homes worth more than £2m from 2028 and removed the two-child benefit limit from April 2026.
Our verdict: Healey has fewer options than his predecessor and a smaller cushion. With the three biggest personal taxes locked, expect the money to come from businesses, property, wealth and spending restraint rather than headline rates. Watch the OBR’s headroom figure on the day: it will tell you more about the next year than any single measure.
How we checked
Dates come from HM Treasury, the OBR and the ONS release calendar. Revenue figures come from HMRC’s Direct effects of illustrative tax changes, June 2025 edition, the latest published; the 2p figure and the pension arithmetic are our own calculations. Borrowing figures come from the Resolution Foundation, and the list of reported options from the outlets named in the table, as of 29 September 2026. We will update this page when Healey sits down. We have no link to any party. If you spot an error, tell us through our contact page and we will correct it with a dated note.
FAQ
What date is the UK Budget 2026? Wednesday 28 October 2026.
What time does the Autumn Budget start? Usually around 12:30pm, straight after Prime Minister’s Questions. The exact time is not announced in advance.
Who is the Chancellor delivering it? John Healey, who became Chancellor on 20 July 2026.
Will income tax go up? Healey has reaffirmed the pledge not to raise income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT. Frozen thresholds, which mean more people pay the higher rate over time, continue until 2031.
How much will 2p on income tax raise? About £13.8bn in 2026-27 on the basic rate, by doubling HMRC’s estimate for 1p. It is ruled out by the pledge.
What will it do for pensioners? The state pension rises in April 2027 by at least 3.9% on current figures. The government has said pensioners just over the personal allowance will not face small bills, with details promised on the day.
