Starmer’s Darkest Hour: How the Mandelson-Epstein Scandal Pushed a British Prime Minister to the Brink of Political Extinction

On Thursday, February 5, 2026, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stood before cameras in Hastings, East Sussex, and delivered the kind of apology that no political leader ever wants to make. “I am sorry,” he said. “Sorry for what was done to you, sorry that so many people with power failed you, sorry for having believed Mandelson’s lies.” The “you” in question were the victims of Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender whose sprawling network of elite connections has now consumed the most powerful political office in the United Kingdom.

The apology represented an extraordinary admission of failure from a prime minister who built his career on prosecutorial judgment and moral authority. It also marked the moment when a slow-burning political scandal — the appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the United States — ignited into an existential crisis for Starmer’s leadership. Political analysis firm Eurasia Group now puts the probability of a rival leadership bid and Starmer’s removal from office this year at 80 percent, up from 65 percent just weeks earlier.

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The Timeline: From Appointment to Apology

The Mandelson affair did not erupt overnight. It has unfolded across more than a year of drip-fed revelations, each more damaging than the last.

Key Dates in the Mandelson-Epstein Scandal

Date	Event	Significance
Dec 2024	Starmer nominates Mandelson as US Ambassador	Controversial choice given Mandelson’s known links to Epstein
Sep 2025	Mandelson forced to resign as Ambassador	Resignation triggered by escalating revelations about Epstein ties
Jan–Feb 2026	DOJ releases new trove of Epstein documents	Emails show Mandelson passed confidential government information to Epstein
Feb 4, 2026	Starmer admits at PMQs he knew of ongoing friendship	Acknowledged awareness of Mandelson-Epstein friendship before appointment
Feb 4, 2026	Government approves document release (delayed)	Met Police asks Downing Street not to release files that could “undermine” investigation
Feb 5, 2026	Starmer publicly apologises in Hastings	Says Mandelson “lied repeatedly” during vetting; Mandelson removed from Privy Council

The critical turning point came during Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, February 4, when Starmer confirmed to Parliament that he was aware Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein had continued after the financier’s 2008 conviction for soliciting prostitution from a minor — and that he had appointed him as ambassador nonetheless. The admission contradicted the impression Downing Street had previously given that the vetting process had been thorough and satisfactory.

“He Lied Repeatedly”: What the Documents Revealed

The documents released by the US Department of Justice painted a picture far darker than the “casual acquaintance” narrative Mandelson had maintained publicly. Emails between the two men showed a sustained and substantive relationship that continued for years after Epstein’s criminal conviction. Most explosively, the documents revealed allegations that Mandelson had passed market-sensitive government information to Epstein during his tenure as Business Secretary in Gordon Brown’s government in 2009.

The Metropolitan Police has since opened an investigation into these allegations and has asked the government not to release related documents that could compromise their inquiry. Starmer acknowledged this constraint at his press conference: “However frustrating from my personal point of view that is — and it is — I will not take any step, however politically tempting, however popular, that risks justice for victims.”

ITV’s political editor Robert Peston called it “arguably the most ill-advised political appointment of our age,” adding that the scandal “has blown up Starmer’s general election pledge to end the chaos that has marred British politics for a decade.”

The Political Fallout: Labour in Open Revolt

The mood within the Parliamentary Labour Party has shifted from frustration to something approaching mutiny. Bloomberg reported that Labour MPs described the atmosphere as “febrile and mutinous,” with one minister admitting that “it is only the fact that Starmer’s best-placed rivals have reasons to hold back from a challenge that is keeping the prime minister in his post.”

Key Figures in the Labour Leadership Crisis

Name	Role	Position
Keir Starmer	Prime Minister	Apologised; fighting for survival; approval rating at historic low (–46%)
Angela Rayner	Former Deputy PM	Led backbench revolt on document release; bookies’ favourite for next leader
Wes Streeting	Health Secretary	Previously tipped as successor; soft left bloc resisting his coronation
Andy Burnham	Mayor of Greater Manchester	Popular but lacks a parliamentary seat
Ed Miliband	Energy Secretary	Lost 2015 general election; considered damaged goods
Morgan McSweeney	Chief of Staff	Labour MPs calling for his dismissal; “more influential than the PM”
John Hutton	Blair-era Cabinet Minister	Publicly stated “this government is in serious trouble”

Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman described the situation bluntly: “Keir Starmer is fighting for his political life amid the deepest crisis to engulf his premiership.” While disgruntled Labour MPs had planned to delay any move against Starmer until after a local special election on February 26 and the wider regional elections on May 7, Rahman warned that “it is no longer certain he can hold on that long.”

The New Statesman’s George Eaton captured the paradox at the heart of the crisis: the lack of an agreed successor is the single factor keeping Starmer in office. Rayner must wait for an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs to conclude, Burnham has no parliamentary seat, and Miliband carries the baggage of electoral defeat. “At some point the PLP will have to decide whether Keir’s so toxic that he has to go even without an obvious successor,” a previously loyal minister told the publication.

Market Reaction: The Pound Takes a Hit

The political turmoil has not been confined to Westminster. The pound sterling, which had been trading at $1.385 just a week earlier — its highest level since 2021 — fell three cents to $1.354 by Thursday, making it one of the worst-performing major currencies of the week. UK 10-year gilt yields ticked up 3 basis points to 4.575% on Thursday morning amid reports of mounting anger among Labour MPs, though they eased slightly after the Bank of England announced it would hold interest rates steady.

UK Economic Indicators Amid the Crisis

Indicator	Value (Feb 5, 2026)	Change	Context
GBP/USD	$1.354	–3 cents in one week	Worst-performing major currency
10-year gilt yield	4.575%	+3 bps (before BoE hold)	Faith in government stability shaken
Starmer approval rating (Ipsos)	–46%	Lowest since records began (1977)	Most unpopular PM in modern polling history
Ladbrokes: Starmer replaced in 2026	71% implied probability	Up from ~50% a week ago	Bookmakers pricing in leadership challenge
Eurasia Group: leadership bid probability	80%	Up from 65%	“Irreparable damage” to premiership

Bloomberg’s Julian Harris noted that the pound’s decline was not solely driven by the Mandelson scandal but was exacerbated by it: the political instability compounded broader concerns about UK economic performance and fiscal discipline.

The Parallels: Partygate, and Worse

Political commentators have drawn uncomfortable parallels between the Mandelson scandal and the Partygate affair that destroyed Boris Johnson’s credibility — and ultimately his premiership — in 2022. Peston argued that, like Partygate, “there are likely to be many more revelations about Mandelson in the coming weeks and months, if for no other reason than that the police investigation will not be brief.”

The comparison is instructive but imperfect. Johnson survived for months after Partygate erupted, sustained by a loyal base within the Conservative Party. Starmer has no such base. His approval rating of –46%, according to Ipsos, makes him the most unpopular prime minister since the firm began polling in 1977. His personal brand — built on competence, integrity, and the promise to “end the chaos” — has been shattered by the very kind of cronyism and poor judgment he pledged to eliminate.

What Happens Next

The immediate future hinges on three variables. First, whether the Metropolitan Police investigation produces charges against Mandelson — and what new revelations emerge in the process. Second, whether the local elections on May 7 deliver results catastrophic enough to force Labour MPs into action regardless of the successor question. Third, whether Angela Rayner’s HMRC investigation concludes in a manner that clears her path to a leadership challenge.

For now, Starmer remains in office, sustained not by confidence but by the absence of a viable alternative. As one Labour MP put it to the New Statesman: “We’re not in a situation where we can afford to be picky. We’re in a situation where the building is on fire.”

The coming weeks will determine whether Starmer can extinguish the flames — or whether the Mandelson scandal becomes the fire that consumed a premiership.