Keir Starmer’s Crisis Christmas 2025: The Prime Minister Fighting for Political Survival
Published: December 24, 2025 | Analysis by UK Political Info | Reading time: 9 minutes
As Christmas 2025 approaches, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the most precarious political position of any British leader in recent memory. Just 18 months after securing a landslide election victory in July 2024, Labour’s support has collapsed to historic lows, his own approval ratings have plummeted, and whispers of a leadership challenge have grown from murmurs to open speculation in Westminster corridors.
While most prime ministers use the Christmas period to project stability and optimism, Starmer enters the festive season battling for his political life. The latest polling data paints a picture so dire that even his closest allies are privately discussing succession plans. This is not the Christmas message Labour envisioned when they swept to power barely a year and a half ago.
The Polling Catastrophe: From Landslide to Collapse
The numbers are devastating. According to YouGov’s voting intention poll conducted December 7-8, 2025, Labour has fallen to just 19% support – a staggering 16-point decline from the 35% they achieved at the July 2024 general election. More alarmingly, Labour now sits in second place behind Reform UK, which leads on 27% for the first time in British polling history.
Key Finding: Labour has lost nearly half of its electoral support in just 18 months – one of the fastest collapses in modern British political history.
To understand the scale of this catastrophe, consider that Labour entered government with a parliamentary majority of 174 seats. Current polling suggests that if a general election were held today, they would not only lose that majority but potentially finish third behind both Reform UK and a resurgent Conservative Party. The Conservatives themselves, at 18%, trail Labour by just a single percentage point – well within the margin of error.
| Party | Dec 2025 Poll | July 2024 Election | Change |
| Reform UK | 27% | 14% | +13% |
| Labour | 19% | 35% | -16% |
| Conservatives | 18% | 24% | -6% |
| Greens | 15% | 6% | +9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 14% | 12% | +2% |
Source: YouGov (7-8 Dec 2025) and UK Electoral Commission
Perhaps most worrying for Starmer personally, YouGov’s comprehensive analysis of political opinion changes over 2025 reveals that the Labour collapse has accelerated throughout the year rather than stabilizing. Labour stood at 26% in January 2025 – meaning they have shed a further seven percentage points since the year began, with the bleeding showing no signs of stopping.
Personal Approval Ratings: A Prime Minister Rejected by His Own Voters
If the voting intention numbers weren’t bad enough, Starmer’s personal approval ratings tell an even grimmer story. According to YouGov’s December 2025 political favourability ratings, the Prime Minister now has a net favourability of -54, with just 20% of Britons viewing him favourably compared to 64% who view him unfavourably.
The real devastation, however, lies in how his own voters perceive him. A majority (53%) of those who voted Labour in July 2024 now have an unfavourable opinion of Starmer, with only 39% still viewing him positively. This represents a catastrophic breach of trust with the very people who put him in Downing Street. When a majority of your own voters turn against you within 18 months, political gravity suggests only one trajectory: downward.
| Time Period | Favourable | Unfavourable | Net Rating | Trend |
| January 2025 | 28% | 53% | -25 | Post-election honeymoon fading |
| June 2025 | 24% | 58% | -34 | Budget fallout begins |
| October 2025 | 22% | 62% | -40 | NHS winter crisis looms |
| December 2025 | 20% | 64% | -54 | Historic low, replacement talk grows |
Source: YouGov Political Favourability Tracker 2025
Government approval ratings mirror this personal decline. Just 12% of Britons approve of the government’s record to date, against 69% who disapprove – giving the Labour government a net approval rating of -57. This is remarkably similar to the -56 rating the Conservative government had before the 2024 election, suggesting that the electorate has already reached a similar level of disillusionment with Labour as they had with the Tories after 14 years in power.
The Policy Failures: Where It All Went Wrong
How did Labour squander a 174-seat majority and historic public goodwill in barely 18 months? The polling data on individual policy areas reveals a government failing across virtually every metric voters care about. According to YouGov’s issue handling tracker, public belief that the government is handling key issues badly has risen across 14 of 15 policy areas since January 2025.
The economic issues dominate public dissatisfaction. Some 79-80% of Britons believe the government is handling immigration, the economy, and taxation badly – the three issues voters consistently rank as most important. Unemployment concerns have jumped 13 percentage points since January, welfare benefits criticism is up 10 points, and crime perceptions have worsened by 8 points.
| Policy Area | % Handling Badly | Change Since Jan 2025 | Critical Context |
| Immigration | 80% | +8 | Record Channel crossings continue |
| Taxation | 79% | +11 | Autumn budget tax rises deeply unpopular |
| Economy | 79% | +8 | Recession fears, stagnant growth |
| NHS | 75% | +6 | Winter crisis, continued waiting lists |
| Welfare Benefits | 72% | +10 | Benefit cuts anger left wing |
| Unemployment | 67% | +13 | Largest single-issue deterioration |
| Crime | 64% | +8 | High-profile incidents dominate headlines |
| Housing | 62% | +6 | Housebuilding targets missed |
Source: YouGov Government Handling Tracker
Crucially, dissatisfaction among Labour’s own 2024 voters has risen even faster than among the general public. On taxation, 67% of Labour voters now believe the government is handling the issue badly (up 21 points since January). On the economy, two-thirds of Labour voters are critical (up 16 points), and on unemployment, 55% express dissatisfaction (up 18 points). When your own supporters abandon faith in your core competencies, the end is typically near.
The Rachel Reeves Factor: A Chancellor Destroying Her Party
While Starmer bears ultimate responsibility as Prime Minister, much of Labour’s polling collapse can be traced directly to Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her catastrophic October 2024 budget. Reeves entered government with the historic distinction of becoming Britain’s first female Chancellor of the Exchequer. She now holds a different, less enviable distinction: becoming one of the most unpopular Chancellors in modern polling history.
According to the December favourability ratings, Reeves has a net favourability of -59 – the worst of any Cabinet member. Just 12% of Britons view her favourably, while 71% view her unfavourably. This represents a 20-point increase in unfavourability since January 2025, with even Labour’s own 2024 voters turning decisively against her by a 56% to 27% margin.
The Reeves Budget Disaster: Labour’s support began its steepest decline immediately following the Chancellor’s October 2024 budget, which included tax rises that critics across the political spectrum characterized as breaking election promises.
The political damage from Reeves’ budget cannot be overstated. Her decision to raise employer National Insurance contributions, freeze income tax thresholds, and maintain controversial fuel duty rises created a perfect storm of middle-class anger that has metastasized into Labour’s broader polling collapse. Small business owners – traditionally a constituency Labour has struggled with but made inroads among in 2024 – have abandoned the party en masse. Public sector workers, angry about real-terms pay restraint, feel betrayed. And younger voters, who overwhelmingly backed Labour in 2024, see no path to homeownership under current policies.
The Replacement Plot: Burnham, Streeting, and Rayner Circle
With polling this catastrophic, Westminster is consumed by speculation about who might replace Starmer. Unlike previous Labour leadership challenges, which typically involved factional battles between the party’s left and right wings, the current situation is more fluid and potentially more dangerous for the incumbent. Multiple senior figures across Labour’s ideological spectrum are positioning themselves, and the urgency is driven by electoral mathematics rather than ideological purity.
The frontrunner in most Westminster conversations is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester. Burnham holds the remarkable distinction of being the only senior UK politician with a neutral or positive net favourability rating. According to the YouGov December data, 29% of Britons view Burnham favourably compared to 29% unfavourably, giving him a net zero rating – positively outstanding compared to the -54 Starmer currently endures.
Burnham’s appeal is straightforward: he represents authenticity and northern working-class roots at a time when Labour is hemorrhaging working-class voters to Reform UK. His tenure as Manchester Mayor has been generally regarded as competent, avoiding the scandals and policy failures that have plagued Westminster. Most importantly, he sits outside the current cabinet and therefore carries none of the responsibility for policies voters despise.
“The question isn’t whether there will be a leadership challenge, it’s when,” a senior Labour backbencher told journalists on condition of anonymity in early December. “Andy is ready. The parliamentary party knows we can’t fight the next election with these numbers.”
However, Burnham faces a significant structural challenge: he would need to resign as Manchester Mayor and secure a parliamentary seat through a by-election before he could contest a Labour leadership election under current party rules. This creates a chicken-and-egg problem – would a safe Labour seat open up for him before a leadership challenge, or would he need to resign and hope for the best?
Other potential challengers include Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, both of whom have been subjects of Westminster replacement rumors. However, both face significant hurdles. Streeting’s net favourability of -25 and Rayner’s -38 suggest neither has captured public imagination as a rescuer figure. Moreover, both are tarred by association with current government policies, making a “fresh start” narrative difficult to sustain.
How Starmer Spends Christmas 2025: Retreat or Resistance?
So how does a prime minister facing political extinction spend Christmas? According to sources close to Downing Street, Starmer plans to follow the traditional prime ministerial practice of spending Christmas Day at Chequers, the 16th-century country house that serves as the PM’s official residence outside London. However, unlike previous years when Chequers offered respite from political pressures, this Christmas is likely to be dominated by emergency strategy sessions and crisis management.
Starmer’s official Christmas message from Downing Street, released December 24, struck familiar themes of national unity, thanking NHS workers and emergency services, and emphasizing the importance of family and community during the festive season. Notably absent was any acknowledgment of the political crisis engulfing his government – a tone-deafness that risks further alienating an electorate that increasingly views Westminster politicians as disconnected from reality.
Starmer’s Christmas traditions – waking early with his children, visiting his late mother-in-law’s memorial, and attending his local pub – will this year carry additional weight as potentially his last Christmas as Prime Minister. While no prime minister since Margaret Thatcher has been forcibly removed mid-term through a party leadership challenge, the combination of catastrophic polling, parliamentary unrest, and electoral mathematics suggests Starmer faces exactly that fate unless something dramatic changes.
Historical Context: How Bad Is This Really?
To understand just how unprecedented Starmer’s collapse has been, consider the trajectories of previous Labour prime ministers after their first 18 months in office. Tony Blair at this stage of his premiership (January 1999) enjoyed stratospheric approval ratings and had faced no serious internal challenges. Gordon Brown, who inherited rather than won office, was still in positive territory in early 2009 despite the global financial crisis. Even struggling Conservative prime ministers like Theresa May had higher polling numbers at comparable points.
| Prime Minister | Party | 18-Month Net Approval | Context |
| Tony Blair (1999) | Labour | +42 | Strong economy, peace in Northern Ireland |
| David Cameron (2012) | Conservative | -18 | Austerity unpopular but economy recovering |
| Theresa May (2018) | Conservative | -24 | Brexit deadlock, but retained party support |
| Gordon Brown (2009) | Labour | -28 | Financial crisis, but blamed predecessors |
| Boris Johnson (2021) | Conservative | -32 | COVID restrictions backlash beginning |
| Keir Starmer (2025) | Labour | -54 | No major external crisis – policy failures |
Source: Historical polling data from Ipsos UK, YouGov, and UK Political Info archives
What makes Starmer’s collapse particularly striking is the absence of any major external crisis that might excuse it. Blair faced the Kosovo War, Cameron dealt with austerity following the 2008 financial crisis, May struggled with Brexit negotiations she inherited, and Johnson confronted a once-in-a-century pandemic. Starmer has faced no equivalent external shock. His government’s failure is purely self-inflicted – a combination of broken promises, unpopular policies, and perceived incompetence.
The Reform UK Threat: A New Political Reality
Adding urgency to Labour’s crisis is the emergence of Reform UK as a genuine threat to both major parties. For the first time in British polling history, a party explicitly positioned as populist and anti-establishment leads national voting intention. According to Ipsos polling from October 2025, Reform leader Nigel Farage now leads Starmer 33% to 30% when voters are asked who they prefer as Prime Minister.
Reform’s rise represents a fundamental realignment of British politics. The party is successfully consolidating disaffected voters from both Labour and the Conservatives, particularly among working-class voters in post-industrial regions who feel abandoned by Westminster. Reform’s lead is strongest on the issues voters care most about: 39% of Britons say they would prefer Reform UK to win the next election, compared to 36% for Labour.
For Labour, Reform represents an existential threat because the party is winning over precisely the voters Labour fought for decades to represent: working-class communities in the North and Midlands who feel globalization and immigration have left them behind. These voters gave Labour its landslide in 2024, but they have proven remarkably willing to abandon the party when they feel it has abandoned them.
Can Starmer Survive Christmas?
The critical question facing Westminster as Parliament breaks for Christmas is stark: can Keir Starmer survive as Prime Minister? The conventional wisdom suggests yes, at least in the short term. Labour’s massive parliamentary majority means Starmer cannot be removed through a parliamentary confidence vote. Labour Party rules require 20% of MPs (currently 82 members) to trigger a leadership challenge, and it remains unclear whether opponents have organized to that extent.
However, political gravity suggests Starmer’s position is untenable. No prime minister can govern effectively with approval ratings this catastrophic, losing the confidence not just of the broader electorate but of their own party’s voters. Parliamentary majorities can evaporate quickly when MPs fear for their seats – and current polling suggests that hundreds of Labour MPs would lose their constituencies if an election were held today.
The Christmas period may prove decisive. Parliament breaks until early January, giving plotters time to organize without the distraction of parliamentary business. MPs will return to their constituencies and hear directly from angry constituents. January traditionally sees new political cycles begin, and a coordinated challenge launched in the new year could gather momentum quickly.
Moreover, the calendar matters. The next general election must be held by August 2029 at the latest. However, if Labour believes its position is terminal under Starmer, changing leaders earlier rather than later makes strategic sense. A new leader would need time to establish themselves, reset policies, and rebuild public trust before facing voters. Every month that passes with Starmer in place and polling catastrophic is a month the party cannot rebuild.
Frequently Asked Questions: Keir Starmer’s Political Crisis
What is Keir Starmer’s current approval rating in December 2025?
As of December 2025, Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is -54, with only 20% of Britons viewing him favourably compared to 64% unfavourably, according to YouGov’s December 2025 political favourability ratings. Most alarmingly, 53% of his own 2024 Labour voters now view him unfavourably.
Will Keir Starmer resign as Prime Minister?
While Starmer has not publicly indicated plans to resign, Westminster insiders report growing pressure from Labour MPs for a leadership challenge. With Labour polling at just 19% (down from 35% at the July 2024 election), many political analysts believe Starmer’s position has become untenable. Andy Burnham, Manchester Mayor, is frequently mentioned as a potential replacement.
Why has Labour’s poll support collapsed in 2025?
Labour support has fallen from 35% (July 2024 election) to 19% (December 2025) – a 16-point collapse – due to multiple factors: unpopular tax increases in Rachel Reeves’ October 2024 budget, perceived broken election promises, policy failures on immigration (80% say handled badly), the economy (79% dissatisfied), and taxation (79% critical). The government’s net approval rating of -57 matches the Conservative government’s rating before the 2024 election.
Which political party is leading UK polls in December 2025?
Reform UK leads with 27% support, marking the first time in British polling history that an explicitly populist party has topped national voting intention. Labour sits second at 19%, with Conservatives at 18%, Greens at 15%, and Liberal Democrats at 14%, according to YouGov polling conducted December 7-8, 2025.
Who could replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader?
The frontrunner is Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester Mayor, who is the only senior UK politician with a neutral net favourability rating (0). Other potential challengers include Health Secretary Wes Streeting (net -25) and Deputy PM Angela Rayner (net -38), though both are damaged by association with current government policies. Burnham’s appeal lies in his authenticity, northern roots, and distance from Westminster failures.
What is Rachel Reeves’ approval rating?
Rachel Reeves, Labour’s Chancellor, has the worst approval rating of any Cabinet member at -59 net favourability. Only 12% of Britons view her favourably, while 71% view her unfavourably – a 20-point increase in negative opinion since January 2025. Even Labour’s own 2024 voters have turned against her decisively, viewing her unfavourably by a 56% to 27% margin.
Conclusion: A Crisis Christmas Indeed
Keir Starmer enters Christmas 2025 as perhaps the most politically vulnerable prime minister since Anthony Eden in 1956. His government’s approval rating stands at -57, his personal favorability at -54, and his party has collapsed from 35% to 19% support in barely 18 months. A majority of his own voters view him unfavourably. His Chancellor is the most unpopular Cabinet member in modern polling history. And a populist rival party now leads national polls for the first time in British history.
This is not the Christmas crisis that resolves with a January reboot and renewed messaging. This is a fundamental breakdown of the relationship between a government and the people it governs. Whether through a leadership challenge, a resignation, or an early general election, something must give – and soon.
The question is no longer whether Starmer can turn things around, but whether he will still be Prime Minister when Britons open their presents next Christmas. Based on the polling data, historical precedent, and the mood in Westminster, the answer increasingly appears to be no. This may well be Keir Starmer’s last Christmas in Downing Street.
What Happens Next? Westminster returns from Christmas recess on January 7, 2026. All eyes will be on whether Labour MPs have used the break to organize a challenge, or whether Starmer can somehow stabilize his position. One thing is certain: the political earthquake that defines 2026 begins now.
For more UK political analysis and polling data, visit UK Political Info, YouGov Politics, and Ipsos UK Opinion Polls.