Starmer Survives Labour Coup – But the Epstein Crisis Isn’t Over

Keir Starmer lost two of his top aides in 48 hours, faced a public call to resign from his own Scottish party leader, and then walked into a room of Labour MPs and told them he’s not going anywhere. Nineteen months into his time as Prime Minister, the Mandelson-Epstein scandal has turned what was already a rough stretch into the worst political crisis of his career.

The facts are simple. Starmer picked Peter Mandelson – a veteran Labour operator and longtime friend of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein – as Britain’s ambassador to Washington in late 2024. He did it knowing about the Epstein connection. And when fresh files from the US Department of Justice landed in early February 2026, everything blew up.

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What the Files Showed

The latest DOJ releases painted a far darker picture than anyone in Downing Street had prepared for. Emails appear to show that Mandelson, while serving as business secretary under Gordon Brown in 2009, passed market-sensitive government information to Epstein. That same year, Epstein reportedly sent £10,000 to Mandelson’s partner. And the two exchanged messages on the day Epstein walked out of jail after his 2008 conviction.

As recently as September 2025, Starmer had already fired Mandelson from the ambassador role after an earlier batch of Epstein files came out. But this second wave was different. It wasn’t just about bad judgment or poor company. It was about potential crimes.

📊 Key Stat: UK police have launched a criminal investigation into Mandelson for alleged misconduct in public office – an offence that carries a maximum sentence of life in prison. (Source: CNN)

Mandelson quit the Labour Party and stepped down from the House of Lords last week. Police searched two properties linked to him. He has not been arrested or charged, and denies any criminal wrongdoing.

The Fallout Inside Labour

The real damage to Starmer came from the inside. On Sunday, February 8, Morgan McSweeney – Starmer’s chief of staff, closest adviser, and the man widely credited with engineering Labour’s 2024 election landslide – resigned. He took full responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson. The next morning, communications director Tim Allan quit too.

Then came the blow that cut deepest. Anas Sarwar, Labour’s leader in Scotland, went public and called on Starmer to step down. With Scottish Parliament elections in May, Sarwar framed it as a matter of survival for the party north of the border.

Starmer held an emergency meeting with Labour MPs that Monday evening. According to reports from inside the room, he told colleagues he had “won every fight I’ve ever been in” and was “not prepared to walk away.”

The Mandelson scandal has turned what was supposed to be a steady, technocratic government into a rolling crisis – and exposed just how thin Starmer’s political base really was.

Who Disagrees

Not everyone thinks Starmer should go. Several cabinet ministers rallied behind him. David Lammy, now deputy PM, said nothing should “distract us from our mission to change Britain.” Rachel Reeves publicly backed the PM on social media.

Starmer’s allies also played a harder card. The Financial Times reported that Starmer’s supporters warned Labour MPs that toppling the PM could trigger a Liz Truss-style spike in bond yields and borrowing costs – a threat that carries real weight after the market chaos of 2022.

Some in Labour argue that forcing out a sitting PM over his ambassador’s connections – not his own – would set a dangerous precedent and hand the next election to Nigel Farage on a plate.

What Comes Next

Starmer survived the week. But the underlying numbers are brutal. Labour sits at roughly 19% in the polls, behind Reform UK at around 27-30%. Starmer’s personal approval rating has recovered slightly – up to -47 net favourability in February from -57 in January, per YouGov – but that still makes him one of the least popular PMs in polling history.

The Gorton and Denton by-election on February 26 will be the next test. If Labour loses a safe seat in Manchester – a city that has been loyal to the party for generations – pressure on Starmer will ramp up again fast.

And the Mandelson police investigation has no timeline. If charges follow, the story comes back with force. The next real marker is May 7, when local and Scottish Parliament elections take place. That is the date Starmer’s survival will truly be measured against.

Sources: CNN, YouGov Political Favourability Ratings, Feb 2026