Labour’s Most Popular Politician Wanted to Save a Safe Seat. His Own Party Said No

Andy Burnham wanted to come back to Westminster. Labour’s NEC told him to stay in Manchester. And in the space of a single Sunday morning vote, the party may have turned a winnable by-election into a humiliating defeat.

On January 25, a ten-member officers group of Labour’s National Executive Committee voted 8-1 to block the Greater Manchester Mayor from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Only Lucy Powell voted in his favour. Shabana Mahmood, chairing as Home Secretary, abstained. Keir Starmer – who sits on the group – reportedly voted against.

The official reason: allowing Burnham to run would trigger an unnecessary mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, draining campaign resources ahead of the May 2026 local, Scottish, and Welsh elections. The reason everybody suspects: Burnham is the only Labour figure who could credibly challenge Starmer for the leadership, and he’d need a parliamentary seat to do it.

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The Backlash

The fallout was immediate and brutal. Within 48 hours, 50 Labour MPs and half a dozen peers signed a letter to Starmer objecting to the decision. They warned that losing Gorton and Denton to Reform would be “unimaginable” and called it “a real gift to Nigel Farage.”

Cabinet ministers had already broken ranks before the vote. Ed Miliband, Sadiq Khan, and Angela Rayner all publicly said Burnham should be allowed to run. The fact that three of the party’s most senior figures were overridden by a sub-committee vote stung.

Burnham himself was measured in public – “disappointed” and “concerned about its potential impact” – but slipped in a knife. The NEC had told the media before telling him. “That tells you everything you need to know about the way the Labour Party is being run these days,” he posted on social media. “You would think that over 30 years of service would count for something.”

Exclusive polling by LabourList and Survation found that 53% of Labour members disagreed with the NEC decision. Among members who think Starmer is doing badly, opposition hit 78%. Even among Starmer’s own 2020 leadership voters, the split was nearly even: 48% backed the NEC, 45% opposed it.

📊 Key Stat: 41% of Labour members said the episode worsened their opinion of Burnham. But 35% said it worsened their opinion of Starmer too – and nobody was trying to block Starmer from anything. (Source: LabourList/Survation)

The Real Reason

The 2025 rule change requiring combined authority mayors to seek NEC permission before standing for parliament was supposed to protect devolution. Mayors are elected to four-year terms. Walking away mid-term to chase a Westminster seat looks bad and costs taxpayers money.

That’s the defensible argument. But it collapses under scrutiny when you look at the politics.

Burnham has been the most electorally successful Labour figure in the country since becoming mayor in 2017. He’s won every election he’s contested in Greater Manchester. He’s built a distinct political brand – northern, plainspoken, focused on devolution and public services – that stands in open contrast to Starmer’s cautious, centralist approach.

He’s also never hidden his leadership ambitions. He ran for Labour leader twice. He’s publicly criticised the party’s direction under Starmer. A return to Westminster would have put him on the backbenches – one leadership election away from Number 10. The NEC vote removed that possibility before a single constituency member had their say.

As the LabourList editor put it: “The vast majority of Labour members I have spoken to simply do not believe this is why Burnham has been blocked.”

What It Means for Gorton and Denton

Senior Labour figures have privately conceded they expect to lose the by-election on February 26. Some fear the party will finish third – behind the Greens and Reform – in a seat Labour won with over 50% of the vote just 18 months ago.

The candidate is Angeliki Stogia, a Manchester city councillor. She’s capable. But she isn’t Andy Burnham. And the campaign has been overshadowed by the Burnham row, the Mandelson-Epstein scandal, and reports that six local Labour councillors were found to have shown “complete disregard” for standards in public life, with one making remarks a panel judged racist.

Labour MPs are, according to The Independent, “despondent and disinclined to campaign.” One told the paper: “We all know it’s over.”

Reform sees an opening. Nigel Farage said publicly that his party’s chances were “considerably better” after Burnham was blocked. The Greens are running a strong campaign with national backing. Betting markets have the Greens as favourites at 68%, Reform at 19%, and Labour at just 9%.

The Bigger Picture

The Burnham decision isn’t just about one by-election. It’s about what kind of party Labour wants to be – and whether it can survive its current leadership without an internal pressure valve.

Burnham represents a wing of Labour that thinks the party needs a bolder vision, more devolution, and a leader who can connect with voters outside the Westminster bubble. Blocking him doesn’t make that wing disappear. It makes it angrier and less willing to knock on doors.

Starmer’s bet is that discipline matters more than popularity – that keeping control of the party machine is worth the cost. The May elections will test that theory. If Labour bleeds seats in local councils across England, Scotland, and Wales, the calls for Burnham will only get louder. And next time, the NEC might not be able to stop them.

Sources: LabourList,ITV News,The Conversation