The Right Is Splitting Apart. Putting It Back Together Might Be Even Worse

Three cabinet-level defections in a fortnight. Nadhim Zahawi, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman – all gone from the Conservative Party, all now wearing Reform UK colours. Jacob Rees-Mogg is urging the right to unite. Nigel Farage says the Tories are “dead.” And Kemi Badenoch is telling everyone who wants to leave to get out of the way.

Welcome to the most dangerous moment in the Conservative Party’s 190-year history. The question isn’t whether the right is divided – it obviously is. The question is whether putting it back together is even possible, and whether trying might make things worse.

Best Online Casinos

Read only the latest news and play at the best online casinos – each one personally verified by us:

The Maths Don’t Work

On paper, it looks simple. Reform polls around 29-30%. The Conservatives poll around 19%. Add them together and you get roughly 49% – a landslide majority under first-past-the-post. The temptation to pursue some kind of electoral pact, non-aggression deal, or eventual merger is obvious.

Lord Ashcroft, the Conservative peer and veteran pollster, tested this idea with real data. His January polling broke both parties’ supporters into three groups: “Rightists” who’d support the other party’s leader over Starmer and want a joint government, “Waverers” who aren’t sure, and “Defectors” who’d actively prefer a Labour-led coalition to a Conservative-Reform one.

The result? A united right-wing ticket would poll around 36.4% – ten full points below what the two parties get separately. If you’re generous and assume three-quarters of the waverers come along, you still only reach 38.7%.

The reason is asymmetry. While 91% of Reform voters prefer Badenoch over Starmer, only 62% of Conservatives prefer Farage to Starmer. More than a third of current Tory voters would rather have a Labour PM than a Farage-led government. A pact doesn’t add votes. It subtracts them – and most of the losses come from the Conservative side.

📊 Key Stat: More than two-thirds of the “lost” voters in a hypothetical pact would be Conservatives who refuse to vote for a ticket that includes Reform. The Tories would be destroyed as a party in the process. (Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls)

Badenoch’s Gamble

The Conservative leader has made her choice: fight Reform head-on rather than accommodate it. When Jenrick defected, she sacked him before he could quit and had his resignation speech leaked to reporters before he delivered it. When Braverman left, Tory sources made a reference to her mental health that was so ugly it had to be retracted within hours. When Zahawi joined Reform, briefings about his alleged pursuit of a knighthood followed immediately.

This isn’t gracious. It’s not meant to be. Badenoch has decided that the defectors are opportunists, not ideologues, and that treating them harshly sends a signal to anyone else thinking about crossing the floor.

In a major speech in late January, she dismissed the defections as “a tantrum dressed up as politics.” She painted a picture of a Conservative Party that is serious about governing – focused on the economy and national security – versus a Reform Party that trades in grievance and has no interest in the hard work of government.

It’s a clear strategy. Whether it works depends on something Badenoch can’t fully control: whether voters see the Conservatives as a credible alternative to Labour, or as a dying party being overtaken by history.

The Prosper UK Problem

Badenoch’s right flank is defecting to Reform. Her left flank is building a rival movement inside the party.

Prosper UK launched in late January, led by Andy Street (former Mayor of the West Midlands) and Ruth Davidson (former Scottish Conservative leader). Their argument: millions of voters are “politically homeless” in the centre ground, and the Conservatives are abandoning them by chasing Reform to the right. The group is backed by heavyweights including Ken Clarke, Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Malcolm Rifkind.

Davidson told reporters: “We want Kemi Badenoch to be the next prime minister, but we need her to go into the next election armed with a broad policy offering.”

Badenoch wasn’t interested. “We’re about the future, not the past,” she said. “We’re not trying to recreate 2006, and it’s not 2016 any more.” She added that anyone pulling in a different direction “needs to get out of the way.”

This creates a two-front war. To her right, Reform is absorbing her MPs. To her centre, Prosper UK is arguing she’s making the problem worse. Badenoch is betting she can hold the party together by force of personality and a clear ideological line. Critics say she’s shrinking the tent at exactly the moment she needs to expand it.

Why a Merger Won’t Happen

Beyond the polling maths, there are structural reasons a Conservative-Reform pact is fantasy.

First, who leads? Reform is ahead in the polls. Farage would expect to be the senior partner. But most Conservative voters, MPs, and members wouldn’t accept him. Badenoch has built her brand on being the anti-Farage – serious where he’s theatrical, policy-focused where he’s grievance-driven.

Second, Reform’s brand depends on being anti-establishment. As the LSE’s Andrew Gamble has noted, the party is “at risk of absorbing so many former Tories that it starts to look like the establishment it denounces.” Jenrick, Braverman, and Zahawi were all cabinet ministers. At some point, voters notice.

Third, the policy gaps are real. Badenoch insists Britain is not “broken” and has deep reserves of strength. Jenrick’s argument – which is now Reform’s argument – is that Britain is broken, and only radical action on immigration can fix it. Badenoch has criticised Reform for ignoring national security and defence. Farage barely mentions either topic.

These aren’t differences that can be smoothed over with an electoral pact. They’re fundamentally different theories of what’s wrong with Britain and how to fix it.

What Happens Next

The May 2026 local elections are the next big test. If the Conservatives get hammered – losing council seats across England while Reform builds a local base – the pressure on Badenoch will intensify. The defections may accelerate. Prosper UK will say “we told you so.”

But if the Conservatives hold enough ground to stay competitive, Badenoch’s strategy of confrontation starts to look vindicated. Reform’s lead has already narrowed slightly from its peak. Farage’s personal ratings remain a problem – only 24% of voters think he’s ready to be PM. The insurgent energy that propels Reform in opposition may not survive contact with the boring realities of council budgets and bin collections.

The most likely outcome? Neither party destroys the other. Both continue polling between 19% and 30%. The right stays split. And the biggest beneficiary isn’t either of them – it’s whoever can stitch together a coalition from the wreckage of British politics at the next general election. Right now, nobody knows who that will be.

Sources: Lord Ashcroft Polls,Hyphen,LSE British Politics