Matt Goodwin Selected as Reform UK Candidate for Gorton and Denton By-Election

The academic-turned-broadcaster was unveiled on 27 January 2026 as Reform UK’s candidate in the Greater Manchester seat vacated by Labour’s Andrew Gwynne. With polls showing a tight three-horse race, the by-election on 26 February has become a referendum on Keir Starmer’s government — and a test of whether Reform can win in Labour’s heartlands.

By UK Political Westminster Desk  |  Published: 2 February 2026  |  Reading time: 9 min

Matthew Goodwin, the 44-year-old political commentator, GB News presenter, and former University of Kent professor, was announced on 27 January 2026 as Reform UK’s candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election. The contest, scheduled for 26 February, was triggered by the resignation on health grounds of Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, who had held the seat since its creation in 2024 (and its predecessor constituencies since 2005). In the 2024 general election, Gwynne won with 18,555 votes and a majority of more than 13,000 over Reform, who finished second with 5,142 votes.

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Those numbers suggest a safe Labour seat. The reality, in early 2026, is rather different. A YouGov poll published on the day of Goodwin’s selection put Reform on 25%, Labour on 21%, and the Conservatives on 17% — a transformation of the constituency’s political landscape in barely eighteen months. The by-election has been further complicated by Labour’s decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as its candidate, a move that triggered a furious internal row and prompted approximately 50 Labour MPs to sign a petition demanding the decision be reversed.

Gorton and Denton — 2024 General Election Result

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
Labour	Andrew Gwynne	18,555	~51%
Reform UK	—	5,142	~14%
Green	—	4,810	~13%
Conservative	—	Low	—
Liberal Democrat	—	Low	—

Who Is Matt Goodwin?

Goodwin occupies a distinctive position in British public life. An academic who spent nine years as a professor of politics at the University of Kent, he is the author of two Sunday Times bestsellers: “National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy” (co-authored with Roger Eatwell) and “Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics.” His most recent book, “Bad Education: Why Our Universities Are Broken and How We Can Fix Them,” was published in 2025. He also runs a Substack newsletter that claims 90,000 subscribers across 183 countries.

Since departing Kent in July 2024, Goodwin has pivoted fully into media and political activism. He joined GB News as a presenter in 2025, taking over the Wednesday-to-Friday slot on “State of the Nation” alongside Jacob Rees-Mogg. He serves as honorary president of Students4Reform, the party’s student wing. His selection as the Gorton and Denton candidate marks his first attempt at elected office — though he insists he is not a “career politician.”

“I am not a career politician. I am not a Tory. I am not part of the establishment. I am not part of the Westminster blob. I am, like many people in this seat and millions of people in this country, hard-working taxpayers who are just fed up of watching what is happening to their communities and to their home.”

— Matt Goodwin, campaign launch, Gorton and Denton, 27 January 2026

Matt Goodwin — Profile

Detail	Information
Full Name	Matthew James Goodwin
Born	December 1981 (age 44)
Education	University of Salford (BA); University of Bath (PhD)
Former Academic Role	Professor of Politics, University of Kent (2015–2024)
Current Media Role	Presenter, GB News (State of the Nation)
Party Role	Honorary President, Students4Reform
Key Books	National Populism (2018), Values Voice Virtue (2023), Bad Education (2025)
Substack	~90,000 subscribers in 183 countries
Manchester Connection	Studied at University of Salford; grandfather worked in local steel factory

The Andy Burnham Row

The backdrop to Goodwin’s candidacy is a Labour Party in disarray over the Gorton and Denton seat. When Andrew Gwynne resigned, the immediate expectation was that Andy Burnham — the popular elected Mayor of Greater Manchester, sometimes referred to as the “King of the North” — would seek to return to Westminster as the constituency’s MP. Burnham has been widely seen as a potential successor to Keir Starmer and a future Labour leadership contender.

Labour’s National Executive Committee blocked Burnham from entering the selection process. The official rationale was that his candidacy would commit the party to two costly by-elections (Burnham would have had to vacate the mayoral role), but the widely held view at Westminster is that the Starmer leadership feared Burnham’s return would strengthen a rival faction within the party. The decision provoked open revolt: approximately 50 Labour MPs signed a petition calling for it to be reversed, and Burnham’s supporters insist he was the only candidate capable of holding the seat for Labour.

Gorton and Denton By-Election — Key Candidates (Announced)

Party	Candidate	Background
Reform UK	Matt Goodwin	GB News presenter, academic, author
Workers Party	Shahbaz Sarwar	—
Labour	TBC (selection pending)	Andy Burnham blocked from running
Green	TBC	Expected strong showing; ~13% in 2024
Conservative	TBC	Expected minimal impact
George Galloway ticket	Possible (Gaza-focused)	~30% of constituency is Muslim

The Polling Picture

The first poll of the constituency since Gwynne’s resignation, conducted by YouGov and published on 27 January, showed a dramatically different landscape from the 2024 result. Reform leads on 25%, with Labour on 21% — a swing of approximately 30 percentage points from the general election. The Conservatives trail on 17%. The Greens, who won 4,810 votes in 2024, are also expected to be competitive, potentially splitting the anti-Reform vote on the left.

By-elections are inherently volatile, with low turnout, protest-vote dynamics, and intense ground campaigning all playing outsized roles. But the polling suggests that Gorton and Denton — a seat in the heart of Greater Manchester that has been Labour territory for generations — is genuinely in play. Nigel Farage has described the contest as “a referendum on Keir Starmer and his hopeless Government,” and Goodwin’s selection is designed to ensure maximum media attention on the race.

Gorton and Denton — YouGov Poll (27 January 2026)

Party	Poll %	2024 Result (approx)	Change
Reform UK	25%	14%	+11%
Labour	21%	51%	-30%
Conservative	17%	—	—
Green	Competitive	13%	—

Challenges for Goodwin

Despite the favourable polling, Goodwin faces several obstacles. Gorton and Denton has a significant Muslim population — nearly one in three residents — and Reform UK’s stance on immigration and integration may prove a hard sell in those communities. George Galloway, the veteran left-wing politician, has been reported to be eyeing the seat on a Gaza-focused ticket, which could draw votes from Labour rather than Reform but also complicates the dynamics.

Goodwin’s local credentials, while not negligible, are thin. He studied at the University of Salford and has cited his grandfather’s career in a local steel factory and his parents’ NHS work in Manchester. But he does not live in the constituency, and Labour has been quick to portray him as a national media figure parachuted into a community he does not represent. Reform UK’s cancellation of major rail investment projects that affect the Greater Manchester area is another potential vulnerability that Labour and other opponents will seek to exploit.

Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell, the MP for neighbouring Manchester Central, has already framed the choice in stark terms, arguing that Goodwin represents divisive politics that will “drive a wedge between communities in Manchester.” The Liberal Democrats have been equally blunt, describing Reform as a party “built on a single foundation: division.”

Gorton and Denton — By-Election Key Facts

Detail	Information
By-Election Date	26 February 2026
Constituency	Gorton and Denton (Greater Manchester)
Reason for Vacancy	Resignation of Andrew Gwynne (health grounds)
2024 Majority (Labour)	~13,400 over Reform
Electorate	~75,000
Muslim Population	~30% of constituency
Current Reform UK MPs	8 (Goodwin would be 9th)
Key Issue (national)	Referendum on Starmer’s government
Key Issue (local)	Cost of living, immigration, NHS, transport

What a Reform Win Would Mean

If Goodwin wins on 26 February, it would mark a seismic moment in British politics: Reform UK taking a seat directly from Labour in the party’s industrial heartland. It would validate Farage’s strategy of targeting disaffected Labour voters rather than solely cannibalising the Conservative vote, and it would intensify the existential crisis facing both major parties. For Labour, it would raise fundamental questions about whether Starmer’s centrist project can hold together its traditional working-class base. For the Conservatives, it would further demonstrate that the right-of-centre electorate is migrating to Reform with no sign of returning.

If Goodwin loses, it would suggest that Reform’s polling strength has natural limits — that there remains a gap between telling a pollster you support Reform and actually voting for the party in a real election. It would also vindicate Labour’s calculation that local ground campaigns can overcome national polling headwinds, even in a hostile environment.

Either way, the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February will be the most significant electoral test of 2026 so far — a contest that, more than any opinion poll, will reveal where British politics is truly headed.